Carnival in Jamaica 2022? Pipe Dream or Possible?

It’s been 2 long years of waiting and watching. Two long years without carnival in Jamaica.

I personally have a theory that 2022 will be the end of the road for covid and that in APRIL 2022 the possibility exists for a week of Carnival fetes after easter in the traditional week Carnival in Jamaica is held.

Let me tell you my reasons.

The pandemic has followed reasonably predictable spikes and ebbs for the last 2 years. Right now we are just past the peak of our current, Omicron fueled, peak. If the patterns seen elsewhere hold true in Jamaica, we should see a fall as rapid as the rise and soon reach low levels of infection and not be due another spike till about June (if the pattern holds). Also at the end of this surge the number of vaccinated and especially naturally Immune persons should be much higher than previously. This should keep deaths and hospitalizations very low.

Even with the astoundingly high rates of new infection, the rate of death has stayed low. Just like in other jurisdictions, death and infections rates in Jamaica are becoming less tightly linked, both because of increasing vaccination rates and post infection immunity, and the fact that Omicron is less deadly than the previous delta strain.

Because deaths and hospitalization isn’t an existential threat like in the delta surge, people are becoming less anxious and worried by covid to some degree.

The government and the economy are ready to get back to normal function. Several industries have been either severely curtailed or all out closed for 2 years. The government has signalled several times in recent weeks that many covid measure will be allowed to expire soon. This will probably (I hope) go hand in hand with the reopening of the entertainment sector, albeit with certain measures in place at least initially. Remember that the entertainment industry did reopen about a year ago briefly and the main large fetes were successful even with measures in place. Many persons blame this reopening for the spike that followed a month or so later but I’m not so sure. Its folly to think that we would have not had a spike when for 2 years we have had spikes every 5 month or so like CLOCKWORK. Transport and workplace are the main drivers of infection in Jamaica according to our own epidemiologists.

Here is what I WANT to happen. (Best case scenario)

Entertainment sector is reopened in late February or early March once cases, hospitalization and deaths are very low.

Several players in the carnival fete market announce carnival week fetes starting in April at easter time.

Once a fete list is established, patrons from Jamaica and the Diaspora will see a trip to Jamaica for carnival as worthwhile, and support for the events will grow. This will trickle down to other industries allied to entertainment such as transport, hotel, food etc.

MAS

Now, in terms of mas, this is a huge event where protocols are essentially unenforceable (although I did outline how something like mas is possible). If the Government decides it’s ok, the bands can pull mas together for us to enjoy. A full costumed mas however, in my view, is unlikely given the time restraints before April. Look for something more like a monday wear mas kinda vibes, with less costume stress and straight vibes. Time will tell if the government and the people of Jamaica are ready.

In the end, Covid is NEVER going away. It’s time to work around it or accept you will live frightened in your home forever.

As always, i encourage you to go and get vaccinated to protect yourselves and other and lets see if #CARNIVALISCOMING